Here is a list of Master’s theses submitted by students of economics from the University of Bonn.
Stenzel, T. (2020). Uncertainty Quantification for an Eckstein-Keane-Wolpin model with correlated input parameters.
The thesis analyzes the uncertainty of the effect of a 500 USD subsidy on annual tuition costs for higher education on the average years of education caused by the parametric uncertainty in the model of occupational choice by Keane and Wolpin (1994). This model output is called a quantity of interest (QoI). The uncertainty quantification (UQ) has two stages. The first stage is an uncertainty analysis, and the second stage is a quantitative global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The uncertainty analysis finds that the tuition subsidy has a mean effect of an increase of 1.5 years and a standard deviation of 0.1 years in education. For the qualitative GSA, I develop redesigned Elementary Effects based on Ge and Menendez (2017) for a model with correlated input parameters. Based on these Elementary Effects, I compute multiple aggregate statistics to quantify the impact of the uncertainty in one parameter on uncertainty in the QoI. However, the analysis does not lead to clear results as there is no consensus about how to interpret the aggregate statistics in this context - even for uncorrelated parameters.
Contact: @tostenzel
Massner, P. (2019). Modeling Wage Uncertainty in Dynamic Life-cycle Models.
The thesis sheds light on the validity of the modeling assumptions of wage uncertainty in dynamic life-cycle models of human capital investment. Since the pioneering work of Keane and Wolpin (1997), a majority of studies in this field followed the approach of assuming serially independent productivity shocks to wages. In the case of Keane and Wolpin (1997), the independence assumption indeed simplifies the numerical solution of the model compared to more complex specifications, such as serial correlation. However, the assumption of i.i.d. productivity shocks seems to be quite narrow in light of findings of the reduced-form literature stream on wage dynamics.
Contact: @PatriziaMassner
Raabe, T. (2019). A unified estimation framework for some discrete choice dynamic programming models.
The thesis lays the foundation for respy to become a general framework for the estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models in labor economics. It showcases the ability to represent Keane and Wolpin (1994), Keane and Wolpin (1997), and Keane and Wolpin (2000) within a single implementation.
Contact: @tobiasraabe